Spark Chart
The Energy Transition in Three Xs
As new clean technologies grow up S-curves, the incumbent technologies get pushed out in inverse S-curves.This creates an X pattern that is standard in technology history; we saw this for example in the shift from cast iron to steel and from horses to cars.
In the Shift to Clean Energy, New Technologies Beat Old Commodities
Commodities, like coal or oil, are lumps of matter we dig out of the ground. Technologies, like solar or batteries, are things we make in factories. Technologies are the meeting of matter and knowledge. Adding human ingenuity into the mix is enough to alter the economics profoundly.
The Great Capital Reallocation
Contrary to popular belief, the buildout of renewable energy supply does not require a surge in capital expenditure (capex). As cleantech capex rises, fossil fuel capex falls. And the net growth in capex is only 2 percent a year, in line with the past seven years, and much lower than in the decade after 2000.
Why Electricity Is the New King of Energy
Until the Industrial Revolution, biomass ruled the energy kingdom. Then came coal, reigning over the top spot until the mid-20th century. Petroleum succeeded coal, but not for long. At the turn of the 21st century, electricity took over as the largest supplier of useful energy. In 2019, electricity supplied 30 percent of useful energy according to IIASA, whilst oil supplied only 24 percent.
