Learn how we are working to transform how we use and produce energy.
Peaking: Why Fossil Fuel Demand Peaked in 2019
Renewable growth and efficiency gains inevitably crush fossil fuel growth.
Why we share this work for free
RMI is an independent nonprofit working to accelerate the clean energy transition. We publish research like this to inform decision-makers and drive real-world impact.
Our work is supported by philanthropy as well as partnerships, including fee-for-service engagements. This support makes it possible for us to share our independent insights for free.
If you find this work valuable, you can support it anytime.
Get more insights like this
Stay up to date with the latest research, analysis, and tools from RMI by opting in to receive occasional emails below. You’ll get new reports, event invitations, and practical insights to help us all accelerate the clean energy transition.
Loading form...
Your download should start automatically. If it doesn’t, click the download button below.
This work is made possible by philanthropy
RMI is a nonprofit supported by donors and partners. Philanthropy enables us to produce independent research and make resources like this freely available.
If you find this report valuable, please consider supporting our work. You can also explore how we partner with organizations to drive impact.
Jump to Section
Sign-up to receive email alerts when new installments of the series are released.
For more, see:
This presentation, another installment of The Peaking Series, shows that it is increasingly clear that global fossil fuel demand reached a peak in 2019, and we are now bumping along a plateau before an inevitable decline.
Renewable energy already supplied 85 percent of growth in primary energy demand in 2019. Peak fossil fuel demand was looming, and renewables supplied all the growth in energy demand in the period from 2019–2021.
Key clean energy technologies are moving up exponential growth curves, meaning that the decline in fossil fuel demand this decade will be at least four times as much as over the past decade.
And efficiency gains are rising because clean energy technologies are 2-4 times more efficient than fossil fuels.
The combination of growing renewables and rising efficiency means there is simply no room for fossil fuel demand growth. Annual supply growth of solar and wind is 5 EJ, rising to around 16 EJ by 2030; annual total energy demand growth will struggle to rise much above 6 EJ this decade before falling back in the next decade.
Fossil fuel demand thus forms a classic pattern of a peak, a plateau, and then a cliff. By the second half of the decade, it will be obvious that fossil fuels are in terminal decline.
Related Insights
Help build the clean energy future. Donate today.
Independent research. Real-world solutions. Supported by donors.
RMI can pursue the highest-impact climate and energy solutions because we’re supported by people who believe change is possible. Every gift helps advance the work needed to make clean energy the default choice worldwide.
For other ways to give to RMI, including checks or gifts of stock, please visit Other Ways to Give.
