Mobility Innovation Lab
Scaling EVs to 2030 Workshop

Why It Matters

EVs haven’t yet achieved widespread adoption: several of the oft-cited reasons include the fact that EVs struggle to compete with gasoline vehicles on cost and range, and there is not enough EV charging infrastructure. Most experts predict that EVs with more efficient batteries will achieve cost-parity with the internal combustion engine vehicle (ICE) within a decade, “maybe sooner”, at which point widespread EV adoption will then be possible.

A decade ago, this would have been an exciting pronouncement. And the business-as-usual timeline of patiently waiting for consumer demand to grow, while battery efficiency and cost reductions are made and more abundant EV charging infrastructure is put in place, would have been viewed by many as a pragmatic investment approach. But there’s scientific consensus that we’re in a climate scenario now that won’t wait for business-as-usual. And as this consensus gains more popular support, all eyes will be on the light duty vehicle sector.

Transportation is the single largest carbon-emitting sector in the United States, responsible for 29 percent of all emissions (24 percent globally). Light-duty vehicles account for 59 percent of these emissions (with trucks at 23 percent, and buses/motorcycles at 4 percent). Modeling shows that even if the electric grid were to achieve the ambitious goal of 75–85 percent of clean energy production by 2040, a seismic shift in how we power our vehicles and provide mobility services is still necessary within the next ten years to limit the global temperature rise to less than 2 degrees C and avoid the most catastrophic effects of climate change. Such a shift will also ensure that our cities are cleaner and more livable for billions of people around the world.

Drilling down further, the analysis shows these climate targets require that 15-20 percent of all light-duty vehicles be electrified by 2030—in the United States this represents 40-50 million vehicles. Today we are nowhere near the pace of EV adoption required to achieve this goal, and this raises the question, “What would it take to achieve a 20 percent LDV EV Car Parc by 2030?” What Herculean efforts, policies and incentives would be required? Can it even be done?