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Tracking the Heat Pump & Water Heater Market in the United States

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This data hub spotlights publicly available national HVAC and water heating shipment data from the Air Conditioning, Heating, & Refrigeration Institute (AHRI). Heat pump appliances play a vital role in the clean energy transition and lowering building emissions thanks to their ability to efficiently provide heating and cooling while replacing the use of onsite fossil fuels. Monthly charts reflect the average of the previous 12 months to remove seasonal variations. This page will be updated every 3 months.

Last updated: December 2024
Next update: March 2024

Tracking Period: October 2023-September 2024

3.8
m
heat pump space heaters sold
28
%
higher heat pump sales compared to gas furnace sales
42
%
of air conditioners sold were heat pumps
55
%
of water heaters sold were electric

Heat Pumps for Space Heating

Heat pumps have outsold gas furnaces consistently since 2021. Shipments of HVAC equipment decreased worldwide in 2023, likely due to inflationary pressures and broad economic slowdowns. Heat pumps maintained their market share during this dip, indicating sustained demand even in the face of tighter budgets for many homeowners. Heat pump shipments rebounded in summer 2024 to near-all-time highs, with gas furnace shipments failing to improve from record highs in 2021. Heat pump sales generally see a seasonal dip as cooling demand tapers in colder months, but the market continues to show year-over-year growth: sales were 27% higher in September 2024 than September 2023.

Over the last 20 years, heat pumps have overtaken gas furnaces in annual shipments and continue to be the most common type of heating system shipped.

Water Heaters

Electric water heaters continue to make up the majority of both residential and commercial water heater shipments, increasing in market share by 2.8% over the last 12 months. The water heater market is generally less volatile than the space heating market.

While shipment and market share data is more limited specifically for heat pump water heaters, ENERGY STAR data suggests that heat pump water heaters made up 4% of residential electric water heater sales in 2023. New federal efficiency standards for water heaters will bring this number over 50% by 2029.

Notes

  • The term “Sales” in these charts refer to shipments of equipment by manufacturers, which may not perfectly match product sales and installations in a given time period.
  • Shipments of equipment do not necessarily correspond to the number of housing units installing each respective system type. Shipment data of heat pumps for space heating includes both ducted and ductless units, and it is common, for instance, for a large single family home to require multiple units ductless units to fulfill space heating or cooling needs. Housing units can also be heated with dual-fuel hybrid systems.
  • Market share refers to the share of equipment in terms of annual shipments.
  • The water heater market trends compare electric to gas water heaters, as data on heat pump water heaters is unavailable on a quarterly basis.
  • Data on heat pumps for commercial space heating is not available.
  • These graphics are based on AHRI shipment data, which may not capture commercial space heating systems. We did not include less common fuel types including electric resistance, propane, wood, and gas boiler systems.
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