As the biggest steel-producing and consuming region, Asia-Pacific (APAC) is key to transitioning the global steel industry to clean energy. Unlocking APAC’s green steel demand will contribute substantially to transforming this market and ensuring regional competitiveness, amid growing climate policy regimes and consumer-driven demand for green products. This report analyzes the steel buyer landscape in seven steelmaking countries in the APAC region to estimate the size of regional near-zero emissions steel demand by 2030. The report also explores the opportunities, barriers, and key levers that can affect offtake in this region, drawing on interviews with steel buyers, steel producers, and other market stakeholders.

Our analysis suggests that steel demand will total 241 million tons per annum (Mtpa) by 2030 in APAC countries. Private sector demand for near-zero emissions steel in the region is estimated at 6.1 million tons per annum (Mtpa) by 2030 (80% for ore-based steel, 20% for scrap-based steel), which could be met by three to four greenfield steel plants. Total public steel demand in APAC focus countries is estimated at 38.2 million tons per annum (Mtpa). If governments align public procurement with 2030 climate targets, governments could add 11.5 Mtpa of additional demand for near-zero emissions steel. While the number of low-emissions steel projects throughout APAC is growing, the projected pipeline of clean steel supply (2.5 Mt) will not meet the projected regional demand (6.1 and potentially up to 17.6 Mtpa by 2030). This gap creates opportunities for new clean supply projects, some of which could be met by green iron imported from cost-competitive regions like Australia to complement domestic production.

To establish contracts that fulfill this demand volume, buyers must overcome several barriers, including supply chain complications, unclear product definitions and standards, and premiums for near-zero emissions steel products. While demand aggregation mechanisms such as the Sustainable Steel Buyers Platform can help buyers overcome some of these challenges, government actions and public incentives are critical to scaling the green market in this region. A combination of supply-side and demand-side incentives, coupled with stringent emissions standards, is needed to unlock demand at scale and support supply development.

Estimated 2030 near-zero emissions steel demand (tons) in APAC focus countries