Powering Through Uncertainty

Resource adequacy is the ability of the electric grid to supply enough electricity to meet demand under a range of future conditions. It has come under increased scrutiny from regulators as traditional fossil fuel power plants approach retirement at the same time as electricity demand is forecasted to grow. This report aims to support regulators in the Western United States in understanding both the key drivers of resource adequacy risk and the specific options available to navigate and mitigate this uncertainty as the grid evolves.

The first part of this report identifies and contextualizes four primary drivers of resource adequacy risk facing Western states: load growth uncertainties, extreme weather and climate change, delays in planned resource builds, and slow transmission expansion.

The second part of this report shows how by pursuing improvements in planning practices, widening the suite of resource adequacy solutions, and seeking reforms in utility business models, regulators can reduce the risk of future resource adequacy shortfalls while continuing to facilitate a transition to a low-carbon grid that benefits customers and enables local economic development.

This report identifies ten specific options for regulators to pursue across these three regulatory strategies, supported by dozens of real-world examples across the West. Ultimately, we hope the addition of this comprehensive framework to Western regulators’ toolbox can help them proactively pursue the most high-impact and climate-conscious solutions to cost-effectively maintain resource adequacy in light of the unique risks facing the West.

This work is made possible with support from the Heising-Simons Foundation.