In The Battery Mineral Loop, RMI lays out a comprehensive strategy to address the rising demand for battery minerals. Battery minerals are not the new oil. Even as battery demand surges, the combined forces of efficiency, innovation, and circularity will drive peak demand for mined minerals within a decade — and may even avoid mineral extraction altogether by 2050. These advancements enable us to transition from linear extraction to a circular loop, with compounding benefits for our climate, security, equity, health, and wealth.

Change is already underway. Without the past decade of improvements in chemistry mix, energy density, and recycling, lithium, nickel, and cobalt demand would be 60–140 percent higher than they are today. Continuing the current trend means we will see peak virgin battery mineral demand in the mid-2030s.

Accelerating the trend along six key solutions — deploying new battery chemistries, making batteries more energy-dense, recycling their mineral content, extending their lifetime, improving vehicle efficiency, and improving mobility efficiency — means we can reach net-zero mineral demand in the 2040s.

At that point, end-of-life batteries will become the new mineral ore, limiting the need for any mining altogether. We have enough to get there; our known reserves of lithium, cobalt, and nickel are twice the level of total virgin demand we may require, and announced mining projects are already sufficient to meet almost all virgin demand.

Accelerated progress means we only need to mine a cumulative 125 million tons of battery minerals. This quantity alone can get us to circular battery self-sufficiency. That is 17 times smaller than the amount of oil we extract and process for road transport every year. And, at today’s commodity prices, about 20 times cheaper as well.

This means countries can rapidly and cost-effectively move from oil dependency to circular energy independence. So far, China leads the battery circularity race, with mineral independence projected by 2042, but the West and Global South are poised to come back in the race. To accelerate action, all stakeholders, from governments to corporate innovators, will need to lean in to capture the circular opportunity.