This data hub spotlights publicly available national HVAC and water heating shipment data from the Air Conditioning, Heating, & Refrigeration Institute (AHRI). Heat pump appliances play a vital role in the clean energy transition and lowering building emissions thanks to their ability to efficiently provide heating and cooling while replacing the use of onsite fossil fuels. Monthly charts reflect the average of the previous 12 months to remove seasonal variations. This page will be updated every 3 months.

Last updated: March 2025
Next update: June 2025

Tracking Period: January 2024-December 2024

Heat Pumps for Space Heating

Heat pumps have outsold gas furnaces consistently since 2021. In 2024, manufacturers shipped 32% more heat pumps than gas furnaces (4.1M units versus 3.1M units). On a rolling 12-month basis, heat pump shipments are up 8% from three months prior.

Heat pumps continued to lead the HVAC industry-wide rebound from a 2023 dip caused by broader economic pressures: heat pump shipments have recovered 70% of the drop in sales between 2022–2023 and posted their second-best sales year ever in 2024, whereas gas furnaces have recovered 15% and posted shipments below their 10-year average.

Over the past 20 years, annual heat pump sales have increased by 115% whereas gas furnace sales have decreased by 11%.

Water Heaters

Electric water heaters continue to make up the majority of both residential and commercial water heater shipments, increasing in market share by 1.5% between 2023 and 2024. The water heater market is generally less volatile than the space heating market.

While shipment and market share data is more limited specifically for heat pump water heaters, ENERGY STAR data suggests that heat pump water heaters made up 4% of residential electric water heater sales in 2023. ENERGY STAR data for 2024 will be incorporated in the September 2025 update.

Notes

• The term “sales” in these charts refer to shipments of equipment by manufacturers, which may not perfectly match product sales and installations in a given time period.
• Heat pump sales numbers are based on outdoor condensing units sold. Systems with multiple indoor heads but one outdoor condenser are counted as one unit.
• Not all HVAC sales become a primary heating system: some homes use multiple heat pumps and/or multiple furnaces. 2015–2020 EIA RECS data suggests that 35% of heat pump sales replace an existing system, 41% become a new primary heating system, and 24% become a secondary heating system.
• Market share refers to the share of equipment in terms of annual shipments.
• The water heater market trends compare electric to gas water heaters, as data on heat pump water heaters is unavailable on a quarterly basis.
• These graphics are based on AHRI shipment data, which may not capture commercial space heating systems. We did not include less common fuel types including electric resistance, propane, wood, and gas boiler systems.